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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-17 07:02:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 170502 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and become a little better organized during the past several hours. Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough surf over those areas. Heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days, see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4, WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml $$ Forecaster Brown
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