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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-20 19:47:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201746 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today and tonight, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development of this system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area is located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized during the past several hours. However, the system is expected to move inland over Texas tonight or Tuesday before significant additional development can occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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