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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-19 07:24:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 190524 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds in these thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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