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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-31 07:08:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 310508 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves moves westward at at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. This system has gradually gotten better organized during the past 24 hours but is currently producing only limited showers and thunderstorms. Additional development is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for further development on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing little shower activity, and any development of this system should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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