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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-11 07:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110542 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida later today and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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