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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-11 19:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene, both located over the central Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with wind and satellite data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, and it could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight. But if not, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little bit over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near a surface trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located a few hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of disturbed weather is located just off of the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions could support development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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