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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-02 01:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 012335 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure has developed over the west-central Caribbean Sea just north of the northeastern coast of Honduras. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are slowly becoming better organized, and a NOAA buoy northeast of the center has reported winds to near tropical storm force during the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form on Friday or Saturday, but only if the system moves and remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. Development will become less likely if the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Another tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by locally rainfall and gusty winds. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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