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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-05-22 01:20:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212319 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri May 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of Bermuda is well-defined and is gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics. In addition, earlier satellite-derived wind data revealed that the system is producing gale-force winds. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly over the past several hours. If that trend continues, it would result in advisories being initiated on the system later tonight or Saturday morning while it moves slowly westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. The low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday and the systems development chances diminish after that time. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A well-defined low pressure area is located over the western Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Earlier satellite wind data and buoy observations indicated that the system is producing winds of 30-35 mph near and to the east of its center but recent satellite and radar imagery shows that shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited. Although environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for significant development, only a slight increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland along the Texas coast overnight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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