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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 07:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110554 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over Newfoundland, Canada. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. Some development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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