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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 07:29:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120529 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico have been increasing during the past several hours near and east of a surface trough of low pressure. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning, and potential tropical cyclone advisories could be initiated later today. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, including the western Yucatan Peninsula, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coasts through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. This disturbance could bring locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern Bahamas in a few days resulting from the northern end of a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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