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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-16 07:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 160556 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nicholas, located inland over southwestern Louisiana. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with an area of low pressure located more than 500 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, earlier satellite derived winds indicated the system also lacks a well-defined center. However, environmental conditions are still expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Shower activity remains poorly organized in association with a broad low pressure system located several hundred miles to the south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located just inland over Africa is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for additional development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
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