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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-23 19:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 231753 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Sam, located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. While showers and thunderstorms remain limited near the low, only a small increase in this activity could result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during the next day or so. Strong upper-level winds are expected to develop over the system beginning tomorrow, which should then limit further development. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A surface trough of low pressure has developed in association with a large area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. This feature is interacting with an upper-level trough, and some tropical or subtropical development could occur in the next day or two as this feature moves generally north-northwestward. Strong upper-level winds should prohibit further development by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far east Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
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