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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-11 01:27:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102327 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low pressure area located about 75 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Recent radar and satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low has become less defined since this morning. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any further development of this system while it moves slowly northward or north-northeastward through Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are still possible over portions of the North Caroling Outer Banks through Monday and information on these hazards can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave located about a little more than 500 miles east- southeast of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive, and some limited development could occur during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. After that time, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development. The disturbance is forecast to approach the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit any development over the next day or so, but environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual development of the system when it is located near the southeastern Bahamas around midweek. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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