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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-11 07:16:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110516 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low pressure area located just off the North Carolina coast continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this system is not expected to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are still possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks today and information on these hazards can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. After that time, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development over the next day or so, but environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual development of the system when it is located near the southeastern Bahamas around midweek. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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