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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-01 19:50:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 011750 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Mora
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-01 19:50:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 011749 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96): Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have become better organized since yesterday. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression this afternoon, and watches or warnings could be required for a portion of the southeastern coast of Mexico. Additionally, heavy rain is likely along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97): An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are generally conducive for development, the proximity of this system to the low pressure area near the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96) could limit development chances during the first couple of days. Later this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly west- northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, with development chances increasing by this weekend. This system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-10-01 17:11:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 378 FONT12 KNHC 011452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics