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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-05-27 22:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 272035 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 Amanda's cloud pattern has deteriorated in organization today. Although the cyclone is producing some very intense convection, the thunderstorms are not particularly well organized, and there is little evidence of banding features. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from NESDIS SAB - however, this may be generous. The weakening of the hurricane may be partially due to its slow movement, and the resultant upwelling of cooler ocean waters. Although the vertical shear is predicted to diminish over the next day or two, drier air and lower sea surface temperatures are likely to induce continued weakening. The official wind speed forecast is very close to the latest Decay-SHIPS and intensity model consensus guidance. The hurricane continues to plod north-northwestward at 4 kt between a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast and a weak trough to its northwest. Steering currents are forecast to remain weak for the next several days, but most of the track models show the tropical cyclone turning northward and then northeastward over the next couple of days into a slight weakness in the ridge over northwestern Mexico. Late in the forecast period, a northeast- southwest oriented ridge extending across the Baja California peninsula should cause Amanda to turn southwestward. The official track forecast is only slightly west of the previous one and close to the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 15.0N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 15.6N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 16.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 17.3N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 18.0N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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