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Bicycle Parking Code Update Project - Discussion Draft

2018-11-08 17:20:24| PortlandOnline

The current Discussion Draft of the Bicycle Parking Code Update Project

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-11-06 03:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060239 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 Deep convection has now remained absent in Xavier for about twelve hours. Given the hostile southwesterly vertical shear, dry mid-levels, and only lukewarm waters to be encountered by the system during the next couple of days, it is unlikely that persistent deep convection will make a comeback. Therefore, Xavier is now considered to be a post-tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory to be issued by the National Hurricane Center. Despite the lack of thunderstorms, Xavier is showing a well- pronounced, though small, low-level circulation in the last few visible images. Peak winds in the system are around 40 kt, assuming that some spindown has occurred since the 45 kt observed from the ASCAT scatterometer several hours ago. Continued gradual weakening is very likely and Xavier is anticipated to become a remnant low by Tuesday night and dissipate in about three days. The post-tropical cyclone is moving west-northwestward at around 5 kt. The system should turn toward the west or west-southwest during the next couple of days until dissipation, under the influence of a lower tropospheric ridge north of Xavier. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-11-05 21:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 All of Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with embedded shower activity. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a pair of recent ASCAT passes over the circulation. Strong southwesterly shear and the surrounding dry environment finally appear to have cut off the production of deep convection, and although intermittent bursts of thunderstorms are still possible, it is unlikely that the circulation will be able to produce persistent organized convection. Therefore, Xavier's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up by 24 hours in the official forecast, although it is entirely possible that it could become a post-tropical low as early as tonight. Xavier's winds are also expected to continue to gradually diminish, likely falling below tropical-storm-force overnight or early Tuesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by day 4. The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at 4 kt. A low-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific should drive the now-shallow circulation west-northwestward to westward at a slightly faster speed during the next few days. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward to account for recent motion trends, but it otherwise lies through the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-11-05 15:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 A burst of deep convection occurred over the low-level center around the time of the last advisory, but that activity has again been scoured off to the northeast due to 30 kt of southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed, and the initial intensity remains 50 kt, which is very close to the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates. Xavier has been tenaciously resisting the ill effects of shear for the time being. However, the circulation will be moving westward toward a drier environment where mid-level relative humidity values are 30-40 percent. In theory, the combination of strong shear and drier air should put an end to deep convection production, but relatively warm waters could still allow the cyclone to produce intermittent bursts of shower and thunderstorm activity over the next several days. Based on the latest intensity guidance, no changes were made to the official forecast, which continues to show Xavier becoming a remnant low in 48 hours and dissipating by day 4. Caught within a break in the subtropical ridge, Xavier is only creeping west-northwestward, or 295/3 kt. As deep convection gradually dwindles near the cyclone, the shallower circulation is expected to be steered westward to the south of a low-level ridge stretching across northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one during the first 24 hours. After 24 hours, it has been nudged southward toward the various consensus aids, continuing the trend that was noted by the previous forecaster. Even though Xavier is slowly moving away from the coast of Mexico, inclement weather is still occurring near the coasts of Colima and Jalisco, and tropical-storm-force winds could still be occurring in that vicinity. Therefore, it's prudent to continue the Tropical Storm Warning until we have confirmation that the strong winds have shifted farther offshore. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 113.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-11-05 09:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050841 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 The satellite presentation of Xavier has degraded somewhat overnight, with the main area of convection decreasing in coverage and becoming more separated from the low-level center. Somewhat surprisingly, a couple of ASCAT passes between 0345 and 0500 UTC indicated peak winds of around 50 kt. This suggests that Xavier may have been slightly stronger than previously estimated since the overall structure of the storm was better defined yesterday afternoon and evening. Based on these data, the intensity was adjusted to 50 kt on the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory, and remains at that value for now. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air mass are expected to cause the tropical storm to weaken fairly quickly over the next day or so, and the global models suggest that Xavier will degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. Xavier has been moving slowly northwestward or 305/3 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge that is building to the north of Xavier should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, and then westward during the next 12 to 24 hours. As the system weakens it is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward within the low-level flow until dissipation occurs in 3 to 4 days. The track guidance envelope shifted somewhat southward this cycle, and as a result, the official forecast was adjusted in that direction but it remains to the north of the consensus models out of respect for continuity with the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.4N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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