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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-05-24 16:37:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 241437 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 An eye has been observed sporadically in infrared satellite imagery during the past few hours, and recent microwave data has also revealed a small pinhole eye in the 85-GHz channel and a 12-15 n mi eye in TRMM radar data. Satellite classifications are still rising, and Amanda is being initialized as a 65-kt hurricane based on Dvorak estimates of T4.0 from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Amanda is intensifying rapidly, strengthening by 35 kt over the past 24 hours. Amanda is located over very warm water and in an environment of light vertical wind shear, and all indications are that this period of rapid intensification is likely to continue. The operational SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is indicating a 60 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours, which is almost 15 times higher than normal. An experimental Joint Hurricane Testbed version of the RII product, which includes additional environmental variables, is showing even higher chances of rapid intensification. Based on this guidance, Amanda is forecast to continue strengthening rapidly, potentially reaching the threshold for major hurricane in about 24-36 hours. After 48 hours, southerly vertical shear is expected to increase, which is likely to cause Amanda's low- and mid-level circulations to decouple. Therefore, fast weakening is indicated toward the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the high likelihood of continued rapid intensification, but it is largely unchanged thereafter. Amanda continues on its slow west-northwestward trek, and the initial motion is estimated to be 290/4 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over Mexico should begin weakening soon, which will cause the hurricane's forward motion to slow even further during the next 24 hours. In about 2 days, the mid-level ridge is forecast to restrengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico while a mid-level trough amplifies near 130W. This pattern change should push Amanda northward between days 3 and 5, but the speed is still likely to be fairly slow. The GFS and ECMWF models are located on the right side of the guidance envelope on this forecast cycle, and the NHC forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right as well, especially beyond 36 hours. This track is also to the right of the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 11.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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