je.st
news
Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-06-02 10:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020846 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Satellite data indicate that Andres continues to weaken. The deep convection has become less symmetric and the eye is no longer apparent. A blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB yield an initial intensity of 90 kt. The hurricane will be moving over sea surface temperatures of less than 26 degrees Celsius very soon, and into a drier and more stable environment. These unfavorable conditions will cause steady weakening, and Andres is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and become a post-tropical cyclone in 72 hours, if not sooner. The global models suggest that the circulation will become an open trough in about 5 days, and the official forecast follows suit by calling for dissipation by 120 h. The initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt. The forecast reasoning from the previous advisory remains unchanged. A mid-level ridge to the north of Andres is forecast to shift eastward as a deepening mid-latitude trough approaches the west coast of the United States during the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to move northwestward, then northward. After 48 hours, a weaker Andres is forecast to turn slowly eastward within the low-level flow. The new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory, but shows a slightly faster eastward motion late in the period to be in better agreement with the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.0N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.8N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 20.1N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.3N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 20.2N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||