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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-06-02 16:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021433 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Andres continues to deteriorate this morning with the coldest cloud tops limited to the eastern portion of the cloud pattern. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers of T4.0/5.0. Andres is traversing cooler sea surface temperatures of 25 degrees Celsius while the drier, stable, marine layer intruding from the northwest continues to adversely affect the inner-core convection. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus IVCN. Andres is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, however some of the deterministic and ensemble models indicate an even faster rate of weakening. The initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Andres should gradually weaken over the next couple of days, causing Andres to turn toward the northwest and north. Through the latter portions of the period, Andres is forecast to turn slowly east-northeastward and drift within the weak low to mid-level steering current produced by the aforementioned deep-layer trough. There are no significant changes to the previous advisory and the NHC forecast is based on a blend of the TVCE model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) guidance. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT-B overpass which showed a decreased extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the southeast and southwest quadrants than earlier estimated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.8N 122.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.5N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.1N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 19.9N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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