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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-05-30 10:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300837 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 Andres is producing a relatively compact area of strong convection, but the high-level cirrus canopy continues to obscure an eye in infrared satellite imagery. A 0501 UTC AMSU pass showed that the bulk of the deep convection is located within the eastern and southern eyewall--probably the result of 15-20 kt of north- northwesterly shear. Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have notched upward just a bit (T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT), and the initial intensity is therefore set at 80 kt. The hurricane is currently located due south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge, resulting in a northwestward motion of 325/6 kt. Mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen to the north and northwest of Andres during the next couple of days, which should induce a west-northwestward turn by tonight. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first 48 hours but then diverges thereafter. The GFS appears to keep Andres as a hurricane for too long after it reaches colder water, and its solution is therefore considered to be a northern outlier. Otherwise, the remainder of the guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the official track forecast is nearly on top of the previous one. Global model fields and SHIPS guidance suggest that the shear affecting Andres will continue for another 18-24 hours. However, the shear doesn't appear quite strong enough to significantly disrupt the circulation, and the thermodynamic environment remains conducive for some further short-term strengthening. After 24 hours, the oceanic heat content falls to zero, so Andres will begin to upwell colder water and start a steady weakening trend that will continue through the end of the forecast period. The intensity guidance is in general agreement of this scenario, and the new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the 0300Z forecast, close to the multi-model consensus (ICON). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 16.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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