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Hurricane Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-06-28 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Alvin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Somewhat surprisingly, Alvin has strengthened into a hurricane this evening. The diminutive system is exhibiting a rather symmetric CDO with very deep convection bursting near the center. Microwave images show a small eye about 10 n mi in diameter. Subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB, along with objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, support a current intensity of 65 kt. Alvin is not expected to maintain its intensity for very long. Within 12 to 24 hours, the cyclone should encounter significantly stronger southwesterly shear and SSTs below 24 deg C. These hostile environmental factors should bring about rapid weakening, as supported by essentially all of the numerical guidance. Alvin is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. The hurricane is moving a little to the right and slightly faster than previous estimates, with an initial motion of about 305/14 kt. Alvin should continue to move near the western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours, with the weakening cyclone gradually turning toward the left and decelerating. The official track forecast is very close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 17.4N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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