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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-07-05 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051453 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has been intensifying rapidly this morning. Satellite imagery shows a ragged eye that has been warming and becoming better defined in the middle of a large-sized central dense overcast (CDO). A special Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB suggests that the cyclone is close to major hurricane status, so the initial intensity is boosted to 95 kt, and this could be conservative. Blas has been moving nearly due westward since the last advisory, with a longer-term initial motion estimate of 280/13. For about the next 72 hours, the track model output is in good agreement that Blas should be steered westward and then west-northwestward around the southern and western periphery of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific. After that time, there is a rather significant divergence in the track guidance. The bulk of the model solutions indicate a northwestward track when Blas interacts with a cut-off low well northwest of it and encounters weaker ridging. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean, however, predict a much more southerly track in response to a stronger subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is adjusted to the south of the previous one, owing mostly to the more westerly initial motion. The track forecast is closer to the ECMWF solution beyond day 3, based on the premise that Blas should weaken significantly and become a shallow cyclone during that time. Given that Blas is undergoing rapid intensification, the short-term forecast shows a significant increase in intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours and is above all of the numerical guidance. Later in the period the hurricane should be moving over cooler waters, so a gradual weakening trend is expected to commence in about 48 hours. If Blas follows a more southern route than anticipated, however, it could weaken more slowly than shown here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.1N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.4N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 14.8N 123.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.4N 130.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.1N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.6N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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