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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-07-05 22:55:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052055 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has the classic appearance of a powerful hurricane in satellite imagery this afternoon, with a 20 n mi wide eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast which in turn is almost surrounded by outer convective bands. Satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and a recent CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate is 110 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt, making Blas the first major hurricane of the eastern Pacific season. Blas continues its westward movement with an initial motion of 275/14. For the next 72 hours or so, the hurricane should be steered generally westward to west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific. This portion of the new forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72 hours, the forecast confidence decreases as the track guidance diverges. The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, and Canadian models turn Blas northwestward between the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level low centered to the northeast of the Hawaiian islands. In contrast to the other models, the ECMWF forecasts the low to move westward with mid-level ridging developing between it and Blas. Thus, it forecasts Blas to turn westward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is similar to the old track in showing a west-northwestward motion at 96 and 120 hours, with the track lying between the ECMWF and the other models. Blas should remain in a light-shear environment over warm water for the next 12-24 hours or so, and some additional strengthening is possible during this time. While the shear is expected to be light to moderate during the forecast period, the cyclone should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 24 hours which should cause a steady weakening. The new forecast intensity is similar to that of the previous advisory and calls for Blas to decay to a remnant low over cold water by 120 hours. However, if the ECMWF track verifies, the system would stay over warmer water and likely remain a tropical cyclone at 120 hours and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.3N 120.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 21.1N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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