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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-07-06 16:42:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061442 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 The overall satellite appearance of Blas has changed little since early this morning. Blas has characteristics of an annular hurricane with a large 25 to 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by a symmetric convective ring with little outer banding features. The initial intensity remains 110 kt, and is a blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. Blas is currently in a low shear environment and over SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius. Although the shear is forecast to remain low for the next several days, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should result in gradual weakening of the hurricane during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, Blas will be moving over SSTs below 26C which should cause a faster rate of weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies between the SHIPS and LGEM models. Blas is moving west-northwestward or 285 degrees at 10 kt, and should continue on this general motion during the next 36 to 48 hours while it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. By 72 hours, the model guidance begins to diverge with the GFS, HWRF, GFDL, and GFS ensemble mean taking Blas northwestward around the eastern portion of a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii. The ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward track, with less interaction between the upper-low and the hurricane. This appears to be the result of the size, location, and orientation of the upper-low in the various models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there is low confidence in the the track forecast late in the period, and the NHC forecast track remains near the GFS/ECMWF consensus at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.0N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 16.6N 128.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.5N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.6N 133.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 21.8N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/1200Z 22.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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