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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-07-07 16:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071439 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that Blas is beginning to weaken. The eye has become a little less distinct this morning, and the surrounding ring of deep convection has warmed over the northwestern portion of the circulation. A blend of the various Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS yields an initial wind speed of 105 kt. Blas is currently moving over gradually decreasing SSTs, which should result in continued weakening, however, given the annular hurricane characteristics of Blas the rate of weakening is expected to be gradual today. A more rapid spin down should begin tonight or Friday when Blas moves over even cooler water and into a more stable environment. The hurricane is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and weaken to a remnant low by day 5. Blas is moving west-northwestward or 290/9. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward today, but is forecast to turn northwestward on Friday between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-/upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance has come into better agreement through this time period, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope through 72 hours. After Blas weakens and becomes a shallower system, the ECMWF takes the cyclone west-southwestward while the remainder of the guidance shows a more westward track. The NHC forecast favors the latter scenario and remains north of the ECMWF solution at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.2N 127.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.8N 128.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.7N 129.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.9N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 132.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 21.9N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 11/1200Z 22.0N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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