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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-07-08 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080233 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 The eye feature has become less discernible in enhanced infrared imagery this evening, and the inner core cloud top temperatures have warmed considerably. A compromise of all available subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 95 kt. Blas is expected to accelerate its spin down as the cyclone continues to traverse a rather sharp sea surface temperature gradient and reaches sub-24C waters by the 36 hour period. Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by that time, and ultimately become a remnant low in 3 days, or earlier. The official forecast intensity is basically an update of the previous advisory and is close to the Florida State Superensemble. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/8, within the southwestern peripheral steering flow of a mid-level ridge originating over eastern Mexico. Large-scale models all show the cyclone gradually turning northwestward in 12 hours as Blas enters a growing weakness produced by a large cut-off low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. As the weakening trend accelerates and Blas becomes a vertically shallower system, the post-tropical remnant low is expected to turn westward in the easterly flow of the trades. The NHC forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS (GFEX). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 16.9N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 17.6N 129.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 18.8N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.2N 132.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.5N 133.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.5N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 22.3N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z 21.7N 146.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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