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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 22
2016-07-08 10:46:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080846 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 The eye of Blas is no longer apparent in infrared imagery, but cold cloud tops persist in a CDO over the center. The initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Rapid weakening is expected during the next 48 hours as Blas moves over much cooler waters and into a drier and more stable airmass, and the NHC forecast during this time is close to the latest LGEM guidance. Blas is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours and then continue a slow spin down through the remainder of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 300/09, as Blas is beginning to gain some latitude as it moves around the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge centered well to the east over Mexico. The track model guidance shows Blas turning northwestward between 12 to 36 h as it moves into a weakness ahead of a large upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that time a weakening Blas should turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC forecast is a bit north of the previous one through 48 hours following the latest guidance trend. Late in the period the guidance has shifted southward, and the new NHC track is south of the previous one. This forecast is little south of the latest GFS track and ends up a bit north of the multi-model consensus by day 5. The initial and forecast wind radii were adjusted based on a pair of timely ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes over Blas between 0530 and 0630 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 17.4N 129.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 18.3N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/0600Z 22.0N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 20.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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