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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 23
2016-07-08 16:50:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 081450 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 Despite being over cool water, the convection associated with Blas remains deep with cloud tops below -70C. Recent microwave data show that the eye of Blas is still intact and it has occasionally been evident in infrared satellite imagery this morning. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are gradually decreasing and a blend of the latest estimates yields an initial wind speed of 85 kt. The hurricane will be moving over waters below 24C and into a more stable atmospheric environment during the next 12 to 24 hours. This is expected to cause rapid weakening and Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Saturday, and become post-tropical in about 48 hours. Blas is still moving west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward very soon between a mid-level ridge extending westward off the coast of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low northeast of Hawaii. As Blas weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it should turn back westward, then west-southwestward in the low level trade wind flow in 48 to 72 hours. The bulk of the track guidance has shifted a bit southward at 48 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The updated track is near the center of the model envelope through 72 hours, but is north of the multi-model consensus after that time out of respect for the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and continuity with the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 17.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 21.3N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 21.7N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 20.3N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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