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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-07-08 22:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 082034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 Cool waters are taking a toll on Blas. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has degraded since this morning as the convective cloud tops have warmed and steadily decreased in coverage. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 75 kt, which is blend of the latest subjective T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane should continue to quickly weaken while it moves over water below 24C and into a more stable environment during the next several days. The latest intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, and calls for Blas to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours. Recent center fixes show that Blas has turned northwestward. The cyclone should continue moving northwestward during the next day or so into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii. By Sunday, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn back westward in the low-level easterly flow. The guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the updated track forecast is essentially an update of the previous NHC advisory. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.5N 130.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 21.8N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/1800Z 22.0N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 21.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 20.5N 144.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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