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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-06-11 04:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Satellite data suggest that Bud is strengthening. Shortwave infrared images and an SSMIS pass from a few hours ago indicate that Bud's inner core and banding features are becoming better defined, and an eye feature has recently become evident in most satellite channels. However, deep convection is not yet symmetric with the strongest convection remaining to the east of the center. The 00Z Dvorak classifications ranged from 55 to 75 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt, closer to the high end of the range given the improved structure of the inner core during the past several hours. Bud is moving northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This general heading with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Some of the models show Bud stalling on Tuesday or Wednesday as the steering currents weaken between the ridge to the north of the hurricane and a developing mid- to upper-level low to its west. After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to weaken, allowing Bud to resume a northwestward to north-northwestward motion toward the Baja California peninsula. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the various consensus aids. This prediction is largely an update of the previous one. A recent 37 GHz GMI microwave pass indicated a closed ring around the eye, which is often a precursor of rapid intensification. Based on this structure and conducive environmental conditions, rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours. This forecast though, unlike the previous one, does call for slow weakening beyond 24 hours as the expected slow motion of Bud could cause cool water to upwell, ending the strengthening trend. More significant weakening is predicted to begin in 2 to 3 days when Bud tracks over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is above the guidance in the short term, given the aforementioned signals of intensification, but falls in line with the guidance thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 16.0N 104.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.7N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 17.5N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 18.4N 107.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 19.9N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 21.7N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 24.1N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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