je.st
news
Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-06-11 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 112032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 The organization of the cloud pattern has improved overall, but the eye has been fluctuating between clear and obscure. An average of TAFB/SAB subjective T-numbers and much higher objective values from UW/CIMSS yield an initial intensity of 105 kt. Bud still has the opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12 hours or so before the environmental conditions become less conducive and the cyclone gradually encounters the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast is in between the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which weakens Bud fast, and the SHIPS guidance which shows a more gradual decay. Bud appears to be moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at about 6 kt. The steering pattern is well established while Bud continues to be embedded within the flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. It is also a little to the west of the HCCA corrected consensus and the FSSE, which are among the rightmost of the models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
bud
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||