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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-06-13 16:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131453 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.2W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.2W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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