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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-06-14 04:46:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140246 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Carlos has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery at the moment. While an eye occasionally appears, the surrounding convection is asymmetric with little convection to the northwest of the eye. This asymmetry is also seen in data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco, which shows strong bands to the east and weak bands to the west of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 77 kt, so the initial intensity remains 75 kt. The initial motion is 345/2. Water vapor imagery suggests that the forecast mid to upper-level ridge is now developing over central Mexico. This should cause Carlos to turn northwestward or west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After a couple of days, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a mid to upper-level trough drops southward across northwestern Mexico. This should result in Carlos turning more northward on the east side of the trough. While the dynamical models generally agree on the overall pattern, there is significant disagreement on whether Carlos will make landfall in Mexico. The GFS and ECMWF models call for the center to turn northward quickly enough to make landfall in the Manzanillo-Cabo Corrientes area. On the other hand, the Canadian, UKMET, and NAVGEM models keep the cyclone offshore. The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, generally follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions, showing a landfall near Cabo Corrientes in about 72 hours and a second landfall by 120 hours in northwestern Mexico. Vertical shear is diminishing over Carlos, and the system is expected to remain over warm water until landfall. This should allow continued strengthening until landfall. However, the intensity guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and Carlos' struggles to maintain an eyewall suggest some negative factor at work such as dry air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is slightly weaker than the previous forecast in calling for a peak intensity of 90 kt in about 36 hours. Landfall in western Mexico should cause considerable weakening and disruption of the circulation, and thus the intensity forecast show significant weakening after 48 hours. The intensity forecast is of low confidence due to the uncertainly in the amount of land interaction and why Carlos is currently struggling to intensify. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 100.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.9N 100.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 21.5N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Category:Transportation and Logistics