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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-06-14 10:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140835 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 The satellite presentation of Carlos has deteriorated overnight, with a decrease of inner-core deep convection and less well-defined convective banding features. An eye is no longer present on satellite images, and only about half of an eyewall was seen in the Acapulco radar data. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and using a blend of final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Given that the hurricane has been over the same general area for over a day, it is likely that the cyclone is being influenced by upwelled and cooled ocean waters. This has probably contributed to the weakening, as was also seen with slow-moving Hurricane Blanca over a week ago. The north-northeasterly shear that had been affecting the system has lessened, and the shear should remain fairly weak for the next few days. Assuming that Carlos will be moving away from its cool wake soon, restrengthening should begin later today. The official intensity forecast is below the previous one, but above the available guidance. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast period is highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to which the circulation will interact with the Mexican landmass in 1 to 3 days. The initial motion continues to be quite slow, or 340/3 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Carlos is expected to build a little over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed in 1 to 2 days. Beyond that time the ridge weakens, so in 3 to 5 days the tropical cyclone should turn toward the north-northwest. As noted earlier, while the dynamical models generally agree on the overall pattern, there is disagreement on where and when Carlos will make landfall in southwestern Mexico. The latest ECMWF solution shows landfall within 3 days whereas the GFS shows landfall much sooner, within 1 to 2 days. Some of the other guidance, such as the UKMET model, does not show landfall at all. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the ECMWF solution. Based on the new forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward to Punta San Telmo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 100.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.3N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.0N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 21.5N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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