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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-06-16 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Satellite images suggest that Carlos is maintaining its intensity this evening. The center of the compact hurricane is estimated to be embedded on the north side of a persistent area of deep convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 65 kt, which is what the earlier aircraft data suggested as well. Carlos remains a very small tropical cyclone. The data measured by the Hurricane Hunters earlier today and a ASCAT pass from several hours ago indicated that the tropical storm force winds extended no more than 40 n mi from the center with hurricane force winds confined to a tiny area around the center. The northerly shear currently affecting Carlos is expected to lessen tomorrow while the hurricane remains over warm water. These environmental factors would typically support strengthening. However, most of the models show Carlos weakening or dissipating during the next few days. This weakening shown in the models is possibly due to the interaction with land and the higher terrain of Mexico and some drier air. It is also possible that the models are having difficultly with Carlos given its small size compared to their resolutions. The official intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one, but does show Carlos becoming a remnant low sooner than previously predicted. Carlos is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur on Tuesday followed by a north- northwestward motion on Wednesday when the storm moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge enhanced by Tropical Storm Bill in the Gulf of Mexico. The models that don't dissipate Carlos have generally shifted to the left, and the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.5N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 21.2N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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