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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 21
2015-06-15 22:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152053 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...HURRICANE CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Punta San Telmo. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.0 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, followed by steady weakening. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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