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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-06-25 16:42:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251442 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT. IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSED EYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. COSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN NORMAL. COSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADY WEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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