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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-06-12 10:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified during the past several hours. Convection around the center has become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better defined and warmer. Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. Cirrus clouds approaching the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is predicted today. A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one in the short term to account for the initial intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours. Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a mid-level high over Mexico. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane remains steered by the high. Cristina should turn toward the west and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes more steered by the low-level flow. Although there is still some model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is basically an update of the last prediction. Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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