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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-06-13 16:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131433 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 Cristina appears to be in the latter stages of an eyewall replacement. A small part of the original eyewall is surrounded by an elongated spiral band, and the eye, as seen in microwave images, has expanded to 25-30 n mi wide. The satellite intensity estimates are still suggesting an overall downward trend, and the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt based on a blend of the Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT. Cristina is approaching a tight sea surface temperature gradient, and the cyclone probably has another 36 hours or so before it moves over water colder than 26C. In addition, upper-level winds are likely to become more hostile in about 24 hours with the approach of a sharp upper-level trough from the west. Therefore, it is unlikely that Cristina will recover much after the eyewall replacement, and continued steady weakening is expected during the entire forecast period. The new NHC forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus during the first 24 hours and then a bit lower between 36-72 hours. A mid-level ridge located over northwestern Mexico continues to steer Cristina northwestward at about 7 kt. This motion should continue for another 24 hours while the cyclone remains a hurricane or strong tropical storm. The weakening system is then expected to turn west-northwestward by 36 hours. The track guidance once again shifted a little to the north on this advisory cycle, and the new NHC track forecast is also moved in that direction for much of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 18.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 20.1N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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