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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-06-13 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132033 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 A 1657 UTC AMSU pass suggests that Cristina's eyewall replacement is probably almost complete, and coincidentally, visible satellite images show a ragged eye trying to re-form. The convective pattern is somewhat lopsided, however, and objective ADT estimates have continued to slowly decrease. Based on the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. Now that the eyewall replacement appears complete, it is not out of the question that Cristina could re-intensify a bit or at least maintain its intensity in the short term while environmental conditions remain relatively favorable. From this point forward, however, vertical shear will be gradually increasing and sea surface temperatures will be decreasing. Therefore, the gradual weakening trend currently in progress is expected to continue during the next three days, with Cristina likely to become a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is between the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble, which dissipates Cristina by day 3. Cristina is still moving northwestward at about 7 kt. The cyclone is expected to begin slowing down in about 24 hours when the mid- level ridge to its north weakens. Low- to mid-level ridging will then steer Cristina west-northwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The guidance is in fairly good agreement on Cristina's future track, and no significant changes to the NHC forecast were required on this advisory cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 18.5N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.6N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 19.9N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 20.3N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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