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Hurricane Chris Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-07-11 10:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 156 WTNT43 KNHC 110839 TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 Chris continues to have a very distinct eye, but the surrounding convection is not as strong as a few hours ago. Dvorak T-numbers are either steady or lower, so the initial intensity is kept at 90 kt in this advisory. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a little during the next 12 to 18 hours while is moving over the Gulf Stream or warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will move over increasingly cold waters, and it should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics as it passes south of Newfoundland. Satellite fixes indicate that Chris has increased its forward speed, and is now moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 19 kt. The hurricane is already embedded withing the fast flow ahead of a large mid-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the hurricane northeastward over the open Atlantic with additional increase in forward speed. Models are in remarkably good agreement and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. This increases considerably the confidence in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 35.3N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 37.2N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 40.9N 62.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 45.0N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 48.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 55.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 63.0N 15.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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