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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-07-02 20:04:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021804 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF DALILA. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL EYE...AND A FAINT EYE IS SEEN IN HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. BASED ON THESE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. BASED ON THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO AS IT INTERACTS WITH DRIER AIR AND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST. THE CENTER POSITION IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A LITTLE. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1800Z 18.3N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 17.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

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