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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-07-15 10:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150839 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the eyewall. The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Dolores should peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical- dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression by day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt. Dolores continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The large-scale models are in agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48 and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster west-northwestward forward motion. Afterward, Dolores is forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the coast of California. The NHC forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and TVCE consensus models. The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT overpasses. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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