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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-07-16 04:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores appears to be gradually losing strength, but it is still a major hurricane. Although the eye of the hurricane remains quite distinct, satellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall have warmed some during the past several hours. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT support lowering the initial intensity to 100 kt. Dolores is expected to remain over warm water and in relatively favorable atmospheric conditions for about another 24 hours. Therefore, little change in strength is forecast during that time. Afterwards Dolores is expected to move over cooler water and into an environment of stronger shear and drier air. These unfavorable conditions should cause a steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely just an update of the previous one and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling around quite a bit. Smoothing through the oscillations yields an initial motion estimate of 300/05 kt. The subtropical ridge that is currently providing the steering for Dolores is expected to build westward during the next couple of days. This pattern change should cause the cyclone to turn more toward the west with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Dolores is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge in a few days, and that should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The latest guidance has generally shifted a little to the northeast, and the official track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. This forecast is in good agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.1N 110.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 19.6N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 20.1N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.5N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.9N 116.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.2N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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