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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-07-16 10:45:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160845 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Enhanced B-D curve infrared and microwave imagery show that Dolores is exhibiting annular hurricane characteristics this morning, with its distinctly symmetric, thick eyewall donut-shaped appearance, large 30 nmi eye, and a lack of well-defined rainbands. Decreasing 26-28C sea surface temperatures and light southeasterly shear appear to be promoting Dolores' cloud pattern. For this advisory, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Because of Dolores' annular structure, only slight weakening is expected through the 36 hour period. Afterward, a sharp decrease in SSTs, a more stable thermodynamic environment, and increasing vertical shear should cause the cyclone to weaken more quickly. After smoothing out the trochoidal oscillations, the long-term motion is estimated to be 300/6. There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. Dolores should continue to be steered by the flow produced by the building subtropical ridge and move on a west-northwestward to an eventual northwestward heading around the western periphery of the anticyclone. Much uncertainty and large spread exists in the guidance suite beyond 72 hours. Global and hurricane models either show a turn toward the west-northwest in response to the building ridge or, a northwest to north-northwest track due to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest. The NHC forecast basically splits these two solutions and follows the GFEX and TVCN multi-models, and is a little to the right of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 28.0N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 30.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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