je.st
news
Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-07-16 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162036 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Dolores's satellite presentation is slowly deteriorating. Cloud tops have been warming since the last advisory, and visible and microwave imagery indicate that dry air is wrapping into the circulation. The intensity is estimated to have decreased to 90 kt based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Progressively cooler water, a drier and more stable environment, and increasing shear in about three days will all contribute to continued weakening through the entire forecast period. The intensity models are in good agreement on the rate of weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Due to the increasingly hostile environment, Dolores could become a remnant low by day 4. Dolores has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 300/7 kt. A building mid-level ridge to the northeast should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours, followed by a turn to the northwest and north-northwest once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The GFDL remains an eastern outlier after 36 hours, but otherwise the rest of the models are in very good agreement on Dolores's future track. The NHC track forecast is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, and no major changes from the previous forecast were required on this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 21.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 26.8N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 30.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||