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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-07-17 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Dolores's convective cloud pattern continues to deteriorate with a significant erosion of deep convection having occurred in the western semicircle since the previous advisory. However, the eyewall convection has changed little and the eye has contracted down to about a 15-nmi diameter. A blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, along UW-CIMSS ADT values, supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. Dolores has made a noticeable jog toward the northwest during the past 6 hours, which was likely due to the aforementioned convective asymmetry that has developed. However, this should just be a short term motion and a turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and then continue for another 36 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as Dolores skirts along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that extends westward from the U.S Southern Plains across northern Mexico and Baja California. The NHC forecast track is to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more northerly initial position, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and the FSSE model. Dolores is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters during the 5-day period, reaching sub-26C SSTs within the next 12 hours or so and moving over 23C water temperatures by 48 hours. The result should be continued erosion of Dolores's convective pattern along with steady weakening. Dolores is expected to become a remnant low pressure system in 72 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the ICON intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 20.8N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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