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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-07-17 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170850 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 The cloud pattern of Dolores has continued to deteriorate, with an eye no longer apparent, and the coverage and intensity of deep convection on the wane. The current intensity estimate is 70 kt which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. This may be generous, considering the data T-numbers from these agencies. The tropical cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures over the next few days, and into a more stable air mass. Additionally, the dynamical guidance shows a significant increase in vertical shear over Dolores in 48 to 72 hours. The official intensity forecast shows a steady weakening trend, but is still somewhat higher than the latest intensity model consensus. With the eye no longer discernible, the center has become more difficult to track. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/9. Over the next several days, Dolores is expected to move along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge extending from the southwestern United States. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become steered by a cyclonic gyre to the southwest of southern California, and to move in a counterclockwise fashion. The official track forecast is near the dynamical model consensus and is similar to the previous NHC forecast. This is also between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 21.2N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 21.4N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 22.0N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 25.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z 29.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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