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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-09 10:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 297 WTNT41 KNHC 090845 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Delta has been generally steady in strength during the past several hours as it starts to close in on the southwestern Louisiana coast. An eye has occasionally been evident in geostationary satellite images, and deep convection remains quite intense around that feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently found have been investigating Delta this morning, and recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 125 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 99 kt. Based on a blend of this data, the initial intensity is held at 105 kt. The hurricane appears to be leveling off in strength as recent microwave passes show some asymmetry in the eyewall and vertical tilt due to southwesterly shear. The core of the hurricane passed very close to NOAA buoy 42002 a few hours ago, and the pressure at the buoy fell to 953 mb. The buoy also reported peak winds around 70 kt and a significant wave height of about 35 ft. The major hurricane is now moving northward at 10 kt. The track forecast models remain quite consistent. Delta is forecast to continue moving northward today and then turn north-northeastward tonight between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the south-central United States. This motion is expected to take the core of the hurricane to the Louisiana coast this evening. After landfall, a turn to the northeast is forecast as a larger trough moves eastward toward Delta, and that motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates over Tennessee or Kentucky in a few days. The models remain tightly clustered, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Delta is expected to move over waters with progressively lower oceanic heat content as it approaches the Louisiana coast. These less favorable oceanic conditions combined with an increase in southwesterly shear should cause Delta to weaken a little before it moves onshore. Regardless, Delta is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall and significant impacts are expected (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated and Delta is forecast to fall below hurricane strength tonight or early Saturday and dissipate in about 3 days. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively large hurricane. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island, Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center this evening and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 26.9N 93.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0600Z 34.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Category:Transportation and Logistics